Equality Bias and it's impact on our ability to make objective and optimal decisions.
Science shows that we consistently undervalue the opinion of the most qualified person in the room. Meanwhile, we overvalue our own, and that of our most charismatic colleagues. We can solve this problem by following 1 simple rule.
Imagine you're sat in a meeting discussing important strategy. Two of your colleagues are arguing over the best course of action, they are both making good points. You’re called upon to make the casting vote, whose side should you take? You will probably favour whoever’s argument you found most compelling, there's a good chance that would be a bad decision.
We tend to believe that everyone deserves their fair say. This is known as “Equality Bias”; the idea that everyone’s opinion is roughly equal. This seemingly innocuous assumption severely damages our decision-making ability. Opinions aren't equal, and basing our judgement purely on the argument in front of us is dangerous. In the moment we may be swayed by irrelevant factors, such as confidence, conviction and charisma.
The best example of this phenomena is the Climate Change debate in America. Around 50-60% of Americans believe that Climate Change is man-made. Only 27% believe that almost all climate scientists agree that it is. However, multiple studies have found a consensus of at least 97% of top scientists agree we are the cause. How can this disconnect be so significant?
It comes back to the 'Equality Bias', debates in the media usually present opinions on equal footing. When one side is backed up by a 97% scientific consensus, the arguments should not carry equal weight. A point brilliantly illustrated by John Oliver in this clip:
An equal debate leads the audience to under value the knowledge of the more competent party. The mixed coverage of the climate change debate in America results in the public over valuing the validity of the denier’s argument. This is why so few Americans are aware of the scientific consensus.
Scientific research suggests, trusting the judgement of the more competent party leads to 'optimal decision' making, more often than making your own decision. Even if there are 10 other people in the room who disagree. Even if you personally disagree; especially if you disagree.
It’s no surprise that we tend to overvalue our own opinion. It is fine to present your point of view, but if a more qualified party believes you to be wrong, there's a good chance you are wrong. The best leaders accept this fact, hire smart people, and trust their judgement. Don’t get in your own way by valuing your own opinion, or that of a charismatic colleague, over that of a competent one.
Follow this one simple rule and keep your decision making objective:
While this won't always lead to a perfect decision, the data suggests it will lead to fewer bad ones. Now you just have to work out who the most qualified party is!